Bowen: Golan attack leaves border war's unspoken rules in tatters

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in a border war for months

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised that Hezbollah will pay a "heavy price" for the attack that killed 12 children at the Majdal Shams football field in Israel's Golan Heights.
Amount of Mr. Netanyahu, his  Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, and the leaders of the Israeli army decided against Hezbollah will determine whether the war between Israel and Lebanon is still limited and controlled, or whether something is worse.
The border war began one day after Hamas attacked Israel in October 7 years ago, when Hezbollah fired a rocket into Israel in support of the Palestinians.
Until then, they fought in a terrible and unspoken agreement. Israel and Hezbollah target military targets, although both  also kill civilians.
Therefore, the war, although it was very dangerous, remained limited. Despite this, tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border  left their homes. Living cities have become ghost cities.
The first fear is that a large-scale attack on  civilians will lead to an uncontrolled escalation on both sides and instead lead to a more serious war, with Israel and Hezbollah fully involved.

Protests against Hezbollah in populated areas of southern Lebanon could avoid further escalation. Killing Lebanese civilians in Beirut or destroying infrastructure such as bridges or power plants will not happen.
Hezbollah says without proof that it did not carry out the  Majdal Shams attack. However, it is difficult to see why he targeted Druze children in football.
Hezbollah has always followed the  rules of conflict and tried to kill soldiers more than civilians since  the border war started on October 8.
It may have focused on Israel's first major warning station at the Mount Hermon military base.
Hezbollah is a  more dangerous enemy of Israel than Hamas. It is stronger than Lebanon's weak government and operates without consultation.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is very close to Iran's Supreme Leader  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah fighters are well-educated and well-trained, and Iran has provided them with powerful weapons capable of hitting Israeli cities.
Hezbollah fought Israel to the death in their last battle in 2006. Its men have a lot of combat experience, fighting for years in Syria to support  the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
The leaders of Israel knew all this. They also know that although they have more power, they have not defeated Hamas in Gaza, and the security of their trusted military is in serious trouble.
Israel is  under intense pressure from its allies, including the United States - without which it cannot continue its war effort - not to take actions that could turn the war into full battle.
The United States and France are trying to negotiate a way to end the  border war between Israel and Hezbollah. The lack of a ceasefire in Gaza hurts hopes of victory.
The border between Israel and Lebanon remains the most likely place for the  Middle East war to escalate.
Even if the problem of the killing of young football players and spectators in Majdal Shams continues, the "law" of the border war is corrupt, imperfect, unreliable, and continues to threaten the same bloody event. Another plague war will begin.