Is the US really heading for recession?

In recent days, stock markets around the world have fallen. 

 Market screens in the US, Asia and Europe are full of red numbers going south. 

 The sudden change comes amid fears of a slowdown in the US economy, the largest in the world. 

 According to experts, the main reason for this fear is that the US employment data for July released on Friday was stronger than expected. 

 For some, however, it is too early to talk about a recession - or even a recession. 

 So what do the official statistics show us? As always in economics, there is good news and bad news. 

 bad news ahead. US employers added 114,000 jobs in July, missing expectations for 175,000 new jobs. 

 The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the so-called "Sahm Law". According to law , named after the American economist Claudia Sahm, if the unemployment rate is more than half a percent of the lowest rate of the previous 12 months for more than three months, then destruction begins in the country. 

 In relation to this, the unemployment rate in the United States rose in July, so the three-month average was 4.1%. That's up from 3.5 percent last year. 

 These were fueled by the US Federal Reserve's vote last week not to cut interest rates. 

 Other central banks in developed economies, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, have recently cut interest rates. 

 The Fed has borrowing costs, but its chairman, Jerome Powell, indicated that they should reduce in September. 

 However, this led to speculation that the Fed waited too long to act. Low interest rates 

 mean it's cheaper to borrow money, which in theory boosts the economy. 

 If the employment numbers show that the economy is already slow, we fear that the Fed is too late. 

 And then, above all, the technology companies and their product prices. Their software has seen a long-term rise, which leads to the field of artificial intelligence (AI). 

 Last week, chip maker Intel announced it was cutting 15,000 jobs. At the same time, market rumors suggest rival Nvidia may delay the launch of its new AI chip. 

  Nasdaq, America's strongest stock market in technology, is bleeding next. After rallying a few weeks ago, it fell 10% on Friday. 

 This has helped to increase the risk of fear in all markets and this is where the risk lies. 

 If stock market fears continue to fall and stocks continue to fall, the Fed may step in and cut interest rates before its next meeting in September. 

 According to Neil Shearing, head of the economic group at Capital Economics, this can happen if "there is an increasing market expansion that threatens to become a system important institutions and/or broader financial stability".

Now for the good news.  

"We are not in a recession right now," according to Ms. Sahm herself, the debt. There are many opportunities to lower interest rates.”  

Others match workplace data "It is likely that Hurricane Beryl contributed to reducing wages in July. Other data paint a quiet picture of the labor market, but not a fall," he said.  

He added that there seems to be no increase in leadership, while the "modest" average weekly hours worked in July "does not scream "movement"."

   Simon French, chief economist and chief researcher at Panmure Liberum, after releasing the US employment data, time to pause “Looking back, have we suddenly reviewed the state of the world's largest economy? No, you shouldn't."