Bowen: Israel's killing of Haniyeh deals hammer blow to ceasefire prospects

Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed shortly after attending the inauguration of Iran's new president

Israel dealt two bad blows to its enemies.  It has not yet been announced that killed  Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, but it is hard to see who  would want him dead more than the Israelis. As for  Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Israel said he was killed in an "intelligence attack" in Beirut.
Hamas leaders in Israel were the rightful targets after the attack on October 7, 2023,  the bloodiest day in Israel since independence in 1948. He was responsible for the rocket attack that targeted 12 children and teenagers. growth in the Golan. The mountains where the Israelites lived.
Hezbollah believed killed in Beirut attack. He denied that the attack took place in the Golan.
The Middle East is once again full of speculation and fear of full-scale war since October 7 is near. The fatal surprise is that neither side wants the war, but  they are increasingly willing to risk it.
The Israelis are forcing their American allies to agree with Hezbollah and kill the group without destroying the group without retaliating and provoking  a wider and deeper war.
But killing two people is a big gamble.
Under pressure from its allies in Washington, Israel wants to kill Hezbollah without retaliation. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah may have decided that the attack on their base in south Beirut was in preparation for a similar attack on Tel Aviv.
Israel can also calculate that Iran will not go to war with the Palestinian leader who was killed, although his death in their capital, under their protection, is shameful.
The assassination of Haniyeh, shortly after he  met with the new president of Iran, was a significant demonstration of what Israel had achieved.

Hezbollah posted this image on Telegram on Wednesday confirming the death of Hezbollah's Fuad Shukr

The Islamic Republic thought it had regained deterrence when it fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel in April - a claim that has now been released. The April attack was also in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals at the Iranian embassy in Damascus. 

 Another retaliation from Iran, sponsored by Hezbollah or one of its proxies seems certain. Militants supporting Iran and Iraq have made it clear that they blame the United States for what happened. In the Red Sea, the Houthis may repeat their attack on Yemen twice. 

 There are limits to what Hamas can do when the Israelis are operating in Gaza. However, Israelis are wary of attacks on the West Bank or Israel itself. 

 It is important to note that the Middle East is already in a regional war, but it should also be noted that it can get worse. 

 However, this process of murder and revenge cannot be the spark that ignites the whole war, although it is easy to build a situation based on clear and dangerous threats and the fact that the world's most turbulent region . 

 Backing back from the brink over and over won't make the war any less. It makes it difficult to create a political path away from the impending threat of full conflict. 

 The first credible step to reduce the deadly heat in the Middle East is a ceasefire in Gaza.

Ismael Haniyeh was an important interlocutor in negotiations over a ceasefire in Gaza
In recent weeks, the United States has said it is getting closer. This is often difficult to quantify because the two sides' definitions of what constitutes an acceptable ceasefire are very different. For Hamas, a ceasefire means withdrawing Israel from the conflict. For Israel, this represented a pause that allowed for the release of some or all survivors and the ability to resume fighting after the war. Now the ceasefire in Gaza is more distant than ever, although the Secretary of the United States Antony Blinken has said again that it is still a US political need. Ismail Haniyeh is one of the leaders in the ceasefire negotiations on the Hamas side. With his staff, he contacted the United States and Israel and the head of Egyptian intelligence and the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohamed bin Jassim al Thani. The Prime Minister posted his response to the killing of Haniyeh in X, writing: "The political killings that continue and the targeting of civilians in Gaza during negotiations prompt us to ask how the media can act well if one side is killing the other's conversation." The killing is more in line with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's view of a "total victory" for Hamas than with America's view that an end to the conflict is needed to avoid regional devastation. It reinforces the conviction of Netanyahu's critics inside and outside Israel that he wants to prolong the war to avoid the time when he will have to face the mistakes he made that helped Hamas to attack evil. October 7, Both the United States and France are struggling to find a diplomatic solution to the border war between Israel and Hezbollah. However, the first important step would be a ceasefire in Gaza, and hopes for this have led to something else.

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